From My Desk to Yours January 2020
At the threshold of a new decade, we greet 2020 with enthusiasm and optimism. We’ll celebrate Martin Luther King Day on the 20th. Had the Reverend lived, we can only speculate how he would have joined with other clergy to counter the current wave of horrific antisemitic violence. To my Chinese friends who will be hosting two weeks of new year celebrations from January 25th to February 11th, I wish you huge blessings and good fortune in the Year of the Rat. May you smile often.
How’s The Market?
We’ve acknowledged the disconnects before: a nearly decade long runup in record breaking stock prices; consecutive job gains and the lowest unemployment rate in half a century; mortgage interest rates below 4%--for the week ending January 2, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.72%. Nonetheless 2019 was much like 2018 for residential real estate—buyers had the upper hand, but they showed little urgency as they toured inventory options where price drops ranged in some instances as much as 25% lower than four years ago. With the exception of a burst of activity midyear in June, in a race to close before a graduated mansion tax became effective on July 1, buyers transacted significantly fewer deals at reduced prices in 2019. Donna Olshan’s Report which looks at properties priced at $4M+ saw a 16% decrease in the number of contracts signed from last year, the lowest dollar volume since 2012 and average time on the market stretching to a 496 (!) days. Characterizing the market as “fragile...by any measure,” Olshan observes, “…a sustained uptick in sales cannot be realized until the market resets its prices.” So what does my crystal ball show? There is every reason to believe we have neared the market’s bottom, especially when we see properties that have lingered moving to contract. There will be more activity in the first half of this year than in 3Q2020 and 4Q2020 since activity will slow down during the year’s second half as it does every presidential election year. New resale inventory will come to market mid January and more in February and March to compete with a nearly eight-month supply of unsold properties. Sellers will discover an edge if they price realistically and set a stylized stage. Buyers who make realistic offers will carry the day.
Did You Know?
Compass continues to perform like no other real estate brokerage. Since 2012, the startup has brought together 15,000 of the best agents in the industry with 2,000 passionate employees in more than 300 offices across more than 35 major U.S. cities. The company has more than quadrupled its technology team from 99 engineers to 440+, opening tech hubs in Seattle, Washington DC and most recently in Hyderabad, India. With the acquisition in November of Detectica, an artificial intelligence and machine learning venture, and under the leadership of Joseph Sirosh, the former AI head at Microsoft, some of the best minds in the field will be tasked with integrating high tech AI with high touch traditional brokerage. If you plan to buy, sell or rent this year, call me, and I’ll explain how we are uniquely positioned to achieve your goals with tools like Bridge Financing, Compass Concierge and Collections.
In Good Company
Meet Jonathan Strauss, Emmy nominated Casting Director and Producer of the eponymous Manhattan based Jonathan Strauss Casting. With an impressive string of TV and feature film credits, Jon's longest running show is the NBC hit series “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” now in its history making 21st season. He serves as the Head of Casting for “Wolf Entertainment” and along with “SVU," he is both Co-Producer and Casting Director for NBC's “Chicago Fire,” “Chicago PD” and “Chicago Med.” In a career that spans twenty plus years, Jon estimates he’s hired close to 20,000 actors, including the likes of Jennifer Lopez, Adam Driver, Jeremy Irons, Bradley Cooper, Viola Davis, Robin Williams and Amanda Seyfried to name a few. His series have garnered 6 consecutive Emmy wins for acting, more than 19 Emmy Actor nominations and 11 nominations for “Guest Appearances by an Actor.” Despite the amazing star power his shows have attracted, Jon says, “The biggest stars are the urban landscapes of Chicago and New York City where we shoot." You can catch Jonathan’s latest runaway hit “FBI” currently airing its sophomore season on CBS with spin-out series “FBI Most Wanted” debuting January 7th. I asked my friend Jon how he recognizes talent when he sees it. Like the champion he is, his response is simplicity personified: “I know it when I feel it."
Click here for Jonathan's IMDB page.
Featured Listing
My friend and associate Kyle Blackmon is marketing a truly beautiful 4 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom home at the Brompton Condominium on East 85th Street. On a high floor with three exposures from oversized windows, this beauty comprises 7 rooms and covers just over 2,300sf. With interior design by Daniel Romualdez architects, known for timeless interiors, no detail has been overlooked. The residence features 10' ceilings throughout and high-end finishes everywhere. The Brompton is a LEED Silver Certified environmentally friendly green building located at 205 East 85th Street. Let me know if you’d like a peek. 205 East 85th Street, 19E
Shirley Hackel, NYRS®
shirley.hackel@compass.com | (914) 980-0371