Two key market dynamics are at play in the current marketplace: the anticipation of lower interest rates and a wave of summer price drops. The former is expected to stabilize the latter, and there are implications for both buyers and sellers.
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nyc real estate
New York City’s residential real estate market in 2023 was mostly about recalibration and resilience. Despite the year’s challenges posed by banking industry shakeups, spiking mortgage rates and uncertain global political and economic landscapes, the city's real estate sector remained stable. Near the start of the year in February, appraiser Jonathan Miller forecast that this year would be one of disappointment and predicted, “Sellers are not going to get the price[s] they wanted … and buyers aren't going to get meaningful discounts.” Following are a few noteworthy market dynamics.
Goodbye 2022. We are ready for 2023! We’ve lived through considerable challenges these last three years with inflation in the forefront running at a 40-year high, and Covid hangovers splicing into a variety of flu and mystery viruses.
Who would have thought that two years after Covid-19 emerged, the global pandemic would still be front and center in our lives? Along with virus mutations, uncertainty has returned as our status quo. Holiday parties have been scratched to minimize exposures; block-long lines surround test centers; a reopened Broadway is balancing frequent cancellations as actors or crew test positive; travelers fly double-masked.
Stats from the second quarter reaffirm Manhattan real estate’s amazing rebound. Following on the heels of a stellar Q1, surging pent-up demand and low interest rates continued to work in tandem to drive up the number of contracts signed. At this point, we have regained values that were lost to Covid discounts and, by and large, we are back to pre-pandemic pricing. It’s activity however, not pricing, that’s way up.
The resilience of the Manhattan residential real estate market was on full display in the first quarter. A new year, new administration, low interest rates, and multiple and more readily available vaccines restored hope. Covid changed the way buyers look for and value space. With pent-up demand, today’s purchasers seek units with outdoor space and private areas for home offices, working out and gathering safely.
New York is alive and getting better. The change is palpable. Establishments have been reopening for business gradually. Restaurants, gyms, museums and movie theaters along with pedestrian and car traffic have returned. Hotel and airline bookings are up. In-person classes at public high schools are resuming this week. Vaccines are more readily available. Those who have been immunized are expanding their social circles, albeit tentatively. Yankee Stadium and Citifield will host the start of the baseball season with 20% fan capacity. Tourists are trickling back. Federal stimulus coins are jingling. Days are getting longer and warmer. And the spring selling season is well underway for New York City’s residential real estate market.
Yesterday’s NY Times front page story “Possible Boom Post-Pandemic” recognizes an economic sea change. We are turning the pandemic corner, and for that we are grateful. Economists are predicting a supercharged rebound for the U.S. Days ago, in a February 18th report issued in Washington D.C., Fannie Mae Sr. VP and Chief Economist Doug Duncan predicted a 6.7% GDP increase this year, simultaneously cautioning that the same reasons for expansion might also push up inflation. “Growth,” he noted, “will accelerate sharply beginning in the second quarter.” The news bodes well for residential real estate in New York.
A new president was sworn into office this noon, and as the Times aptly reported, his “To-Do List” is daunting. Primary among his tasks, President Biden has pledged to oversee the vaccination of 100 million Americans in his first 100 days. In New York, we’re looking forward to when most are inoculated, and we gain herd immunity and can look back on this dreadful nearly year-long Covid period.
We’re two weeks away from the start of a new year, and despite an accelerating pandemic and the closing of indoor restaurant dining, here are ten reasons to be optimistic about the New York real estate market of 2021.
April 12, 2020 When you read the press coverage for Q1 2020, it’s critical to evaluate the stats with multiple grains of salt. We’re not in the midst of a real estate slowdown; in New York, we are near a standstill. Consider that this January’s sales were pretty close to January 2019 totals, and February 2020 volume was actually 10% higher this year, and the first week in March 2020 saw 8% more contracts signed year-over-year. Then came Covid-19.