I’ve been selling residential real estate for 35 years, and for the first time I hosted a business talk last week in my Living Room with a guest banker and an attorney. I had a script and an agenda, but we were an intimate group, and the setting was informal, so as I touched on the stats that impact the market, I encouraged Q & A from the buyers and sellers who had gathered. To set the stage for discussing whether now is the time to buy or sell, I offered an overview of current inventory, identified 3 distinct market segments, highlighted the rise of the condo product, and considered absorption rates.
Three years ago, several weeks into the start of 2013, I reflected on the Wall Street adage “As January goes, so goes the year.” At the time, impressive financial gains were scored with both the S&P 500 and the Dow which were up in the month of January 2013 by 5.05% and 5.77% respectively, signaling the best start to the year since 1987. In residential Manhattan real estate, January 2013 witnessed a jump of nearly 28% in signed contracts over January 2012 (2,888 vs. 2,265). Sofia Song, at the time StreetEasy’s Head of Research, called it “The Year of the Frustrated Buyer.” I termed it “The Year of the Smart Seller.”
With the exception of well priced apartments under $2M which continue to attract multiple competitive bids and top sales dollars, price increases of Manhattan homes have abated. Sellers have relinquished their upper hand as buyers find more balanced footing in a market that seems to be heading back slowly to equilibrium. Throughout this year, new development options have come to market steadily yielding more than two and a half times as many choices for buyers than in 2014: approximately 6,500 units in 100 new buildings compared to roughly 2,500 units in 59 buildings last year. At the ultra high end, sales are stalled. In 2015, Manhattan’s residential real estate market shifted in more ways than one.
My children say I send the same message in each monthly column: price realistically and collaborate with a professional broker to help buy or sell your home. Undoubtedly, the transaction represents a significant portion of your net worth, so why even consider shortchanging yourself
