Highlighting Last Quarter’s Prevailing Trends. If you have questions about your own property or local neighborhood, don't hesitate to reach out. Here’s a summary of key points along with some commentary:
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compass real estate
In January, following a record setting 2021 post Covid recovery, I wrote that Manhattan real estate was poised for a strong 2022. Sales volume last year totaled $30B—6% greater than the previous record set in 2007. During the first half of this year, sales volume reached $15.6B, the highest half year mark in a decade.
In the last 30 days in the residential resale market, there’s been a steady rise in the number of price reductions. Listing supply has increased slightly, but that may ebb as we move further into the summer months. Contract activity has been relatively steady, despite the spreading uncertainty and unease created by a confluence of unmitigated factors, namely rising interest rates (up .75% yesterday with more hikes to come), the ongoing war in the Ukraine, out of control inflation and stock market volatility.
Sometimes you need a velvet rope to foster demand and create buzz and exclusivity. Remember the red velvet barrier in front of Studio 54 in the late 70’s? How cool was it when the big burly bouncer out front nodded that you could enter and join the other disco party-goers? When applied to real estate sales, velvet rope marketing is about creating demand by limiting availability to achieve a premium price.
The resilience of the Manhattan residential real estate market was on full display in the first quarter. A new year, new administration, low interest rates, and multiple and more readily available vaccines restored hope. Covid changed the way buyers look for and value space. With pent-up demand, today’s purchasers seek units with outdoor space and private areas for home offices, working out and gathering safely.
New York is alive and getting better. The change is palpable. Establishments have been reopening for business gradually. Restaurants, gyms, museums and movie theaters along with pedestrian and car traffic have returned. Hotel and airline bookings are up. In-person classes at public high schools are resuming this week. Vaccines are more readily available. Those who have been immunized are expanding their social circles, albeit tentatively. Yankee Stadium and Citifield will host the start of the baseball season with 20% fan capacity. Tourists are trickling back. Federal stimulus coins are jingling. Days are getting longer and warmer. And the spring selling season is well underway for New York City’s residential real estate market.
Yesterday’s NY Times front page story “Possible Boom Post-Pandemic” recognizes an economic sea change. We are turning the pandemic corner, and for that we are grateful. Economists are predicting a supercharged rebound for the U.S. Days ago, in a February 18th report issued in Washington D.C., Fannie Mae Sr. VP and Chief Economist Doug Duncan predicted a 6.7% GDP increase this year, simultaneously cautioning that the same reasons for expansion might also push up inflation. “Growth,” he noted, “will accelerate sharply beginning in the second quarter.” The news bodes well for residential real estate in New York.
We’re two weeks away from the start of a new year, and despite an accelerating pandemic and the closing of indoor restaurant dining, here are ten reasons to be optimistic about the New York real estate market of 2021.
Early spring’s daffodils are here, and we’ve shed our scarves and gloves, but we find ourselves in uncharted waters during an unprecedented season. A new virus is threatening our lives and our livelihoods as it spreads angst, anxiety and confusion. With an incubation period of 2-14 days according to the CDC, and with symptoms appearing about five days after infection, the novel virus unnerves and unsettles us. Human distancing seems to be the most effective tool against the spread of this contagious disease.
At the threshold of a new decade, we greet 2020 with enthusiasm and optimism. We’ll celebrate Martin Luther King Day on the 20th. Had the Reverend lived, we can only speculate how he would have joined with other clergy to counter the current wave of horrific antisemitic violence. To my Chinese friends who will be hosting two weeks of new year celebrations from January 25th to February 11th, I wish you huge blessings and good fortune in the Year of the Rat. May you smile often.
Neither winter’s frost nor shortened daylight hours can dampen end-of-the-year holiday parties, with the first Chanukah candle at sundown on the 21st, Christmas on the 25th and Kwanzaa on the 26th. With flutes of champagne and mugs of hot chocolate, we’ll bid goodbye to the last month of the decade to welcome 2020. Merry New Year one and all!
Is it already November? Don’t wait for the 13th for World Kindness Day or for the 28th to express gratitude. Do remember to turn your clocks back on the 3rd when Daylight Savings ends, do get out and vote for your local officials on the 5th, and honor military veterans on the 11th. In case you didn’t know, November 24th is Celebrate Your Unique Talent Day, so pull out your harmonica or stand on your head and rejoice in YOU! Happy Thanksgiving!
Today is National Skyscraper Day, so look up to marvel at the more than 7,000 architectural feats of engineering in our city—structures with 40 floors or more. This month, Labor Day came early, and the Jewish High Holy Days will be late with Rosh Hashanah on the eve of September 29th. Coinciding with the Hebrew month of Elul, it’s an important season for self-reflection. Lord knows we have much to consider and improve upon and build in our lives and in our nation. Autumn, my favorite time of year, begins on the 23rd.
Those hazy hot and humid days of August are upon us in this third month of summer, the perfect time of year to hang your GONE FISHING sign and when most Europeans take their annual vacations. Celebrate Sisters’ Day on the month’s first Sunday, Lazy Day on the 10th, Middle Childs’ Day on the 12th, and Just Because Day on the 26th.
And just like that the 2nd half of 2019 begins with summer in full swing. Local zucchini is in abundance and corn and tomato season lie ahead. Throw some shrimp on the barbie and celebrate the 4th with gratitude. As of July 1, NY State’s new progressive mansion tax goes into effect. A one-time payment at closing, the levy begins at 1% for transactions from $1M-$2M and rises incrementally in eight tiers, capping at 3.9% for sales of $25M or more. It could have been worse.
With the start of the 2nd quarter comes the promise of warmer weather and increased sales activity. This month, we’ll celebrate with family and friends on Easter, Passover and Earth Day. Tax day is approaching quickly, and on the 19th, a Full Moon will be rising.