Viewing entries tagged
manhattan real estate
In uncertain times, when world events and macro outlooks are dire, there’s no better urban center to invest in than New York City. Our residential market is leveling to be sure, but we’re holding our own. In fact, there’s opportunity, and smart home shoppers are buying.
What are we seeing?
● As expected, after Labor Day and the Jewish holidays, a wave of new inventory appeared to the significant tune of 2,088 total new offerings across all product categories and price segments. Surprisingly however, supply dipped in the weeks following, and resale stock has become short again, frustrating buyers who were looking for more options and prompting multiple offers. New listings were down nearly 30% YOY in Q3, forcing buyers to act quickly and helping to drive sales.
With Labor Day and Rosh Hashanah coinciding on this year's calendar, it’s no surprise that the number of new offerings dropped last week, making 8 consecutive weeks of shrinking new inventory. What’s eye-popping is that 27 contracts over $4M were signed last week, with condos outselling co-ops by nearly 4:1. Even more surprising, the previous week from August 23-29 saw 23 luxury contracts inked with 5:1 condos to co-ops and 9 townhouses, the largest number of TH contracts since Donna Olshan began tracking this $4M+ market segment in 2006 and the strongest pre-Labor Day week since 2014. It was the sixth month in a row for record high contract activity.
August vacations may account for some of the market declines in inventory and contracts this month. With supply super scarce in outlying suburban markets, is it possible that Manhattan will mirror the shortages seen in Westchester, Connecticut and Long Island? As housing stock drifts lower each week this summer, the pressure is on for buyers who are competing for fewer properties.
Stats from the second quarter reaffirm Manhattan real estate’s amazing rebound. Following on the heels of a stellar Q1, surging pent-up demand and low interest rates continued to work in tandem to drive up the number of contracts signed. At this point, we have regained values that were lost to Covid discounts and, by and large, we are back to pre-pandemic pricing. It’s activity however, not pricing, that’s way up.
New York is alive and getting better. The change is palpable. Establishments have been reopening for business gradually. Restaurants, gyms, museums and movie theaters along with pedestrian and car traffic have returned. Hotel and airline bookings are up. In-person classes at public high schools are resuming this week. Vaccines are more readily available. Those who have been immunized are expanding their social circles, albeit tentatively. Yankee Stadium and Citifield will host the start of the baseball season with 20% fan capacity. Tourists are trickling back. Federal stimulus coins are jingling. Days are getting longer and warmer. And the spring selling season is well underway for New York City’s residential real estate market.
A new president was sworn into office this noon, and as the Times aptly reported, his “To-Do List” is daunting. Primary among his tasks, President Biden has pledged to oversee the vaccination of 100 million Americans in his first 100 days. In New York, we’re looking forward to when most are inoculated, and we gain herd immunity and can look back on this dreadful nearly year-long Covid period.
We’re two weeks away from the start of a new year, and despite an accelerating pandemic and the closing of indoor restaurant dining, here are ten reasons to be optimistic about the New York real estate market of 2021.
Manhattan real estate is recovering. Signed contracts and transaction volume are up. Especially encouraging is activity on the high end which saw 21 contracts signed over $4M in the last week of September—the highest since lockdown and the strongest final week of Q3 since 2014 when 33 contracts were signed (per the Olshan Report).
April 12, 2020 When you read the press coverage for Q1 2020, it’s critical to evaluate the stats with multiple grains of salt. We’re not in the midst of a real estate slowdown; in New York, we are near a standstill. Consider that this January’s sales were pretty close to January 2019 totals, and February 2020 volume was actually 10% higher this year, and the first week in March 2020 saw 8% more contracts signed year-over-year. Then came Covid-19.
Neither winter’s frost nor shortened daylight hours can dampen end-of-the-year holiday parties, with the first Chanukah candle at sundown on the 21st, Christmas on the 25th and Kwanzaa on the 26th. With flutes of champagne and mugs of hot chocolate, we’ll bid goodbye to the last month of the decade to welcome 2020. Merry New Year one and all!
Is it already November? Don’t wait for the 13th for World Kindness Day or for the 28th to express gratitude. Do remember to turn your clocks back on the 3rd when Daylight Savings ends, do get out and vote for your local officials on the 5th, and honor military veterans on the 11th. In case you didn’t know, November 24th is Celebrate Your Unique Talent Day, so pull out your harmonica or stand on your head and rejoice in YOU! Happy Thanksgiving!
Autumn is my favorite time of year when the air is crisp but not yet cold, and the apples and pumpkins are ripe for picking. Our region’s fall colors will soon show bursts of red and golden yellows, so do take a drive north or a stroll through Central Park. It’s the month for Breast Cancer and Lupus Awareness. World Teachers Day is on the 5th and World Smile Day on the 7th. Watch out for friendly goblins on the 31st.
Today is National Skyscraper Day, so look up to marvel at the more than 7,000 architectural feats of engineering in our city—structures with 40 floors or more. This month, Labor Day came early, and the Jewish High Holy Days will be late with Rosh Hashanah on the eve of September 29th. Coinciding with the Hebrew month of Elul, it’s an important season for self-reflection. Lord knows we have much to consider and improve upon and build in our lives and in our nation. Autumn, my favorite time of year, begins on the 23rd.
Those hazy hot and humid days of August are upon us in this third month of summer, the perfect time of year to hang your GONE FISHING sign and when most Europeans take their annual vacations. Celebrate Sisters’ Day on the month’s first Sunday, Lazy Day on the 10th, Middle Childs’ Day on the 12th, and Just Because Day on the 26th.
And just like that the 2nd half of 2019 begins with summer in full swing. Local zucchini is in abundance and corn and tomato season lie ahead. Throw some shrimp on the barbie and celebrate the 4th with gratitude. As of July 1, NY State’s new progressive mansion tax goes into effect. A one-time payment at closing, the levy begins at 1% for transactions from $1M-$2M and rises incrementally in eight tiers, capping at 3.9% for sales of $25M or more. It could have been worse.
Take time to smell the roses and the honeysuckle this month. After all, it’s June and the days are longest, so there’s time for gardening, camping and tennis in this first month of summer. Take stock of your achievements as it’s also the end of the 2nd quarter and the midpoint of the year. Happy Father’s Day to all great Dads. Iced tea anyone?
With the start of the 2nd quarter comes the promise of warmer weather and increased sales activity. This month, we’ll celebrate with family and friends on Easter, Passover and Earth Day. Tax day is approaching quickly, and on the 19th, a Full Moon will be rising.
